COP26 was often hailed as our “last best chance” to keep global warming under 1.5℃ this century.

Since then, emissions have reached record levels after the pandemic downturn. And this year alone, we’ve seen dozens of catastrophic disasters ranging from drought in the Horn of Africa to floods in Pakistan, South Africa and Australia, and wildfires and heatwaves in Europe, the United States, Mongolia and South America, among others.

So, as disasters intensify and war rages in Ukraine, what can we expect from this important summit?

Is COP27 less important than COP26?

COP26 was the deadline for countries to commit new emissions reduction targets under the rules of the 2015 Paris Agreement.

The agreement allowed countries to make their own commitments, with the expectation these would be ratcheted up every five years. Glasgow was essentially a big test of whether the deal actually worked to increase commitments addressing climate change.

Glasgow was also significant because it was the first COP since the US returned to the fold after the Trump administration’s withdrawal.

By contrast, Sharm el-Sheikh is less a test of the agreement itself. It is more an opportunity for renewed commitment on mitigation and finance and deciding on next steps for realising these commitments. 

Will more countries make new commitments?

The first big test for COP27 will be whether countries make new emissions reduction commitments.

At Glasgow, more than 100 nations committed to new emissions reduction targets. But these commitments still fell well short of what’s needed to reach the goals agreed at Paris.

Instead of providing a pathway to limit global warming to 1.5℃ or 2℃, Glasgow commitments were shown to put the world on track for a 2.4℃ increase by the end of the century.

This would endanger people and ecosystems throughout the world. And that’s assuming those countries even meet the targets.

Despite this, in the lead up to COP27 fewer than 20 countries have provided updates, and only a handful of these have outlined new emissions reduction targets or net-zero commitments. Of these, only India and Australia are among emitters producing more than 1% of global carbon dioxide emissions.

We’re running out of time

Egypt’s Minister for International Cooperation announced in May that the focus of international action at COP27 should be moving from “pledges to implementation”.

While this includes targets to reduce emissions, the hosts have also been clear about the need for developed states to make good on meeting their financial commitments. The onset of climate change has clearly made this an urgent concern for many in the developing world who are already feeling its effects.

And clearly, these talks are a pivotal moment for the planet, as we risk running out of time in our efforts to avoid climate catastrophe.Read the full article here.

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